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Thursday, October 6, 2016

GDP mixed numbers - updated market

GDP mixed numbers - updated market

Market Update - Quicken Loans Zing Blog

Headline News

S & P Case - Shiller HPI: House prices increased by 0.8 percent on a basis of seasonally in the Case-Shiller survey for December. Price are discharged in any of the 20-City index when you go out of adjustment. It is an increase of 5.7 percent from the same period last year.

the consumer confidence: the confidence of consumers for the month of February is down 5.6 points to 92.2. The metric for jobs that are hard to get rose by 0.6 points to 24.2 percent. Income expectations are also declining, and terms of sale expectations are lower. For some reason, fewer Americans plan to buy a home, despite the fact that the rates cannot be beaten right now. Procurement plans are also declining for cars and appliances. Inflation expectations are down to 4.7 percent, 0.1 percent less than January.

existing home sales: existing home sales rose 0.4 percent to 5.47 million in January. It is increased by 11% over last year. Sales of single-family homes increased 1.0 percent to 4.6 million, + 11.2% since last January. Meanwhile, sale of condo is down 4.7 percent and an annualized 8.9% growth rate. Price aside, the average home sold for $213 800, which is down 4.2%, but it's still upwards of 8.2 percent this year. Supply is up to 4.0 months which is slightly higher than where it was in January, but lower than last year.

MBA mortgage applications: for the first time in a while, the 30 year average fixed mortgage rate went up two basis points to 3.85%. He had a powerful effect on the refinancing, which decreased 8.0% for the week. A 2.0% increase in purchase applications was not enough to keep a total decline of 4.3%.

new home sales: new home sales were down 9.2% in January to a much weaker than expected 494 000. Despite the recession that has been centered to the West, where sales fell 32% - analysts it still consider a respectable number. The South and the Midwest show minimal annual sales declines, while the Northeast is abruptly. People can refresh their homes in order to obtain their withdrawal from the market before winter fully rears its ugly head. The median price fell 5.7 percent to $278 800. That price is down 4.5% for the year. Supply is 5.8 months of 5.1 months after a 2.1% increase in the number of new homes on the market.

orders for durable goods: new orders for durable goods increased 4.9% in January, which make up the loss of 4.6% in December. Parts of the gain occurred because of control of the aircraft, but even when the transport is excluded, orders rose by 1.8%. Meanwhile, basic capital goods increased by 3.9% on the month. Machinery, computers and fabricated all metal had sizeable gains in orders. Motor vehicles also had a good month. Another plus is that stocks were down 0.1 percent.

unemployment insurance: Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 this week at 272 000. However, the four-week average is down by 1 250, also to 272 000. Continuing claims were also down, falling 19 000 to 2,253 million. The four-week average is down from 5 000 to 2,257 million.

FHFA House Price Index : prices increased by 0.4 percent in the month of December housing market. This is an increase of 5.7% over the same period last year. It is a slowdown in the amount annual appreciation in prices as the rate was 5.9%.

GDP: GDP arrived with a growth rate of 1.0 percent in the latest figures for the fourth quarter. It was 0.3% higher than the original estimate. That said, growth and inventories of $81.7 billion was a sign that manufacturers were building a stock for things that nobody wanted at this time. There was also a decline in personal consumption expenditures estimate. It is estimated today that people increase their spending by 2.0% this year of an initial 2.2 percent. Another big negative was that exports decreased 2.7%. A plus is that residential investment rose by 8.0%. People seem to be taking advantage of the rate down while they have.

International goods trade: the divide newly reported international trade in goods spent 1.2% in January to $62.2 billion exports declined 2.9 percent, offsetting a decline of 1.5% of imports. There was a decrease of 6.8% in exports of industrial supplies, coupled to a 2.4% drop in foreign demand for capital goods. Industrial supply changes are a little cheap oil and oil-related. More disturbing, a reduction in capital goods is being attributed by analysts to a lack of confidence in the business climate in the world.

personal income and spending: personal income increased 0.5 percent in January, led by a 0.6 percent increase in wages and salaries. It corresponded perfectly with a 0.5% increase in consumer spending. Meanwhile, the savings side remained unchanged at 5.2 percent. High consumption on the vehicles led to a 1.2 percent gain in durable goods spending. Meanwhile, services spending was 0.6%. Price aside, the prices are up 0.1 percent over the month and 1.3 percent for the year, but the categories of court cost is slightly higher, 0.3 percent in January and 1.7% per year.

the consumer confidence: the confidence of consumers was a full point during the final reading for the month of February to finish at 91.7, just a little below 92.0 where we finished January. The current conditions component was a point to 106.8. Expectations have also increased 0.9 reading points to finish at 81.9 in the middle of the month. As inflation expectations, prospects for a year are unchanged at 2.5%. Prospects for the five-year plan are down 0.2 percent to a correspondent of 2.5%.

new mortgages

mortgage rates declined in all areas again last week.

fixed rate mortgages 30 (service) averaged 3.62 percent with a mid-point of 0.6 for the week ending February 25, 2016, down last week when it averaged 3.65%. A year at the present time, 30 years service on average 3.80%.

15 years service this week averaged 2.93% with means 0.5 point, down last week when he was an average of 2.95%. A year at the present time, 15 years service averaged 3.07%.

adjustable-rate mortgages 5 years indexed hybrid Treasury (weapons) averaged 2.79% this week with a 0.5 means point, down from last week when there was an average of 2.85%. A year ago, 5-year arm averaged 2.99 percent.

stock market

, it was a crazy day for stocks at the end of the week. In the oil futures started higher and then ended the day down $0.29. Once, I will not complain. Good for me at the gas pump. Add to that the fact that data on prices of consumer spending showed an increase of 1.7 percent last year and analysts believe there could be an increase in rates on the table in June. Stocks finished mixed.

If this situation seems confusing to you, you are not alone. I am convinced that anyone who claims to know what's going to happen in one week to the next economy is probably crazy. If you're in the market for any type of funding, it is probably a good time to lock your rate.

the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 57,32 points to 16,639.97. Despite this, the index rose 1.51 percent for the week. The & S P 500 declined 3.65 points ahead at 1,948.05. It was up 1.58 percent for the week. The NASDAQ rose 1.91 percent for the week after finishing Friday at 8.27 points to 4,50.47.

week

Monday, February 29

pending Home Sales Index (10: 00 a.m. EST) - the National Association of Realtors has created the index of House sale pending as a leading indicator of housing activity. Specifically, it is a leading indicator of sales of homes, new home sales not.

Tuesday, March 1

index ISM Manufacturing (10:00) - this index measure branch of manufacturing in the United States the qualitative survey of purchasing managers focuses on production, new orders, unfilled, inventories and supplier deliveries orders, among other factors.

Wednesday, March 2

applications for mortgage loans MBA (7: 00 p.m. EST) - mortgage applications index measurement applications of mortgage lenders. It is a leading indicator for sales of single-family homes and housing.

Tuesday, March 3

Jobless Claims (8: 30 p.m. EST) - unemployment new claims are compiled weekly to show the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An upward trend indicates a deterioration in the job market. The moving average over four weeks of new claims adjusts weekly volatility.

Friday, March 4

Employment Situation (8: 30 p.m. EST) - status report job measure unemployment in the labour force, but also the feelings of the workers on the labour market.

(8: 30 p.m. EST) International Trade - International trade consists of goods (material goods) and services. It is available by the balance, export, import and trade for six major categories of goods in the end uses and for more than 100 major product groups of Standard International Trade Classification System.

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